The Quad Summit 2024: What If PM Modi Had Not Attended?

Imagine a scenario where Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose not to attend the Quad Summit 2024. Held in Wilmington, the hometown of U.S. President Joe Biden, this year’s summit marks a significant moment in global diplomacy. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are in attendance, but what if India, represented by its leader, decided to opt-out?

Would India lose its momentum in shaping Indo-Pacific strategies? Would the balance of power in the region shift? Let’s explore the potential consequences and missed opportunities in this “what if” scenario.

What If India Was Absent From the Quad Summit 2024?

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—comprising the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—serves as a key diplomatic partnership in the Indo-Pacific. Formed in 2004 to foster maritime cooperation following the Indian Ocean tsunami, the Quad has expanded its focus to include security challenges, climate change, and cybersecurity.

If PM Modi had missed the 2024 Quad Summit, India’s absence could have created a diplomatic vacuum. The Quad provides India with opportunities to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, especially regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Without India’s presence, Australia, Japan, and the United States might have had to navigate Indo-Pacific strategies without India’s critical input, potentially weakening the alliance’s collective ability to ensure peace and stability in the region.

Would India still retain its influence in the Quad if it was absent? The answer depends on the trajectory of bilateral ties and diplomatic engagement in the months following the summit.

The Quad Cancer Moonshot: A Missed Opportunity for India?

One of the key initiatives of the Quad Summit 2024 is the ‘Quad Cancer Moonshot’, a milestone program aimed at reducing the global burden of cancer through screenings, vaccines, and treatments. The donations and joint efforts of all four Quad countries will fund this ambitious initiative.

What if India had missed this opportunity? India’s pharmaceutical industry—one of the largest in the world—plays a vital role in global healthcare. By opting out, India might have missed the chance to solidify its leadership in the global health sector, further boost its pharmaceutical prowess, and showcase its technological advancements in vaccine development.

Beyond healthcare, this missed opportunity could have repercussions on India’s STEM fellowships, which, at previous Quad summits, were key to building international collaboration in science, technology, engineering, and math fields.

What If India Hadn’t Participated in Peace Talks on Ukraine and Gaza?

This year’s Quad Summit includes discussions on finding peaceful resolutions to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. These discussions are crucial for reinforcing India’s position as a global peacemaker. But what if PM Modi had not been part of these talks?

India’s neutral stance on global conflicts, particularly its cautious approach to the Ukraine war, has allowed it to play the role of an intermediary. By missing this summit, India could have risked losing its diplomatic leverage. It would have given space to other Quad members to dominate the dialogue on international conflicts, leaving India with fewer opportunities to influence outcomes that align with its strategic interests.

Balancing China’s Influence: What If India Didn’t Participate?

One of the primary purposes of the Quad is to counter China’s aggressive expansion in the Indo-Pacific. All four Quad nations—India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan—have faced rising tensions with China between 2013-2020, making the summit a crucial platform for diplomatic and military collaboration.

If India had chosen not to attend, China’s growing influence in India’s neighborhood—via port facilities in countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan—would go unchecked. Would India be able to effectively balance China’s Belt and Road Initiative without the backing of its Quad partners? It’s unlikely. India’s absence could have emboldened China to expand its geopolitical reach in the region, further pressuring India to respond on its own.

Strengthening Bilateral Relations: What If Modi Missed Out?

The Quad also offers a platform for strengthening bilateral ties with the U.S., Australia, and Japan. These partnerships are crucial for India’s long-term strategic interests, including defense agreements, information-sharing, and economic investments.

If PM Modi had not attended the summit, India’s bilateral ties with these key nations could have taken a hit. By not participating in joint military exercises or economic discussions, India might have missed out on defense collaborations and technology investments that are vital for its national security and economic growth.

Conclusion: What India Would Have Missed

In this “what if” scenario, India’s absence from the Quad Summit 2024, would have created a diplomatic and strategic void. The Quad Cancer Moonshot, peace talks on Ukraine and Gaza, and the ongoing struggle to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific are too significant to overlook. By participating, India strengthens its position on the global stage, reaffirms its ties with key allies, and safeguards its interests in one of the most geopolitically critical regions of the world.

India’s leadership role in the Quad, alongside the United States, Australia, and Japan, ensures its voice is heard in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific and addressing pressing global challenges.

Sources